Week 6 Anytime TD Picks

Finished 14-26 with 1 void · 35.0% of picks scored · -10.22u at 1u each

Every player with an Anytime Touchdown price this week, ranked by our model's chance they score at least once. The ranking weighs backfield role and red-zone work, the opponent's touchdowns allowed to the position, and the points a team is expected to score from its spread and total. Players priced above +400 are longshots and stay off this list — they are still on the board for parlays.

  1. 1
    Kyren WilliamsRB
    LA vs ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ET
    65.2%
    FD -190
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
  2. 1
    Christian McCaffreyRB
    SF vs WAS · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    60.6%
    FD -250
    Scored · 2 TD · +0.40u
  3. 2
    James CookRB
    BUF vs LV · Sun 4:25 PM ET
    63.9%
    FD -165
    Scored · 1 TD · +0.61u
  4. 2
    Javonte WilliamsRB
    DAL vs GB · Sun 8:20 PM ET
    59.5%
    FD -230
    Scored · 1 TD · +0.43u
  5. 2
    George KittleTE
    SF vs WAS · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    38.0%
    FD +105
    Scored · 1 TD · +1.05u
  6. 3
    Christian WatsonWR
    GB vs DAL · Sun 8:20 PM ET
    53.6%
    FD +120
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
  7. 3
    Mike EvansWR
    SF vs WAS · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    37.2%
    FD -105
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
  8. 3
    Kenneth Walker IIIRB
    KC vs LAC · Sun 4:25 PM ET
    63.0%
    FD -165
    Scored · 2 TD · +0.61u
  9. 4
    CeeDee LambWR
    DAL vs GB · Sun 8:20 PM ET
    42.8%
    FD +115
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
  10. 4
    Stefon DiggsWR
    WAS vs SF · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    27.2%
    FD +250
    Scored · 1 TD · +2.50u
  11. 5
    Kaelon BlackRB
    SF vs WAS · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    21.3%
    FD +380
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
  12. 5
    MarShawn LloydRB
    GB vs DAL · Sun 8:20 PM ET
    42.5%
    FD -140
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
  13. 6
    Rachaad WhiteRB
    WAS vs SF · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    18.5%
    FD +115
    Scored · 1 TD · +1.15u
  14. 7
    Puka NacuaWR
    LA vs ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ET
    55.5%
    FD -150
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
  15. 7
    Jayden DanielsQB
    WAS vs SF · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    18.1%
    FD +230
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u

How these picks are made

The model starts from each player's carries, targets and red-zone touches over recent weeks, adjusts for the matchup and stadium, then checks its answer against the sportsbook price. A pick only appears here when the model's chance to score beats the chance the price implies.

See the record

Every pre-kickoff pick we have saved is graded and published — wins and losses both, with the price taken and profit in units.

This site is undergoing continuous improvements. Visit Account Settings to provide your feedback for future enhancements.