Week 6 Anytime TD Picks
Finished 14-26 with 1 void · 35.0% of picks scored · -10.22u at 1u each
Every player with an Anytime Touchdown price this week, ranked by our model's chance they score at least once. The ranking weighs backfield role and red-zone work, the opponent's touchdowns allowed to the position, and the points a team is expected to score from its spread and total. Players priced above +400 are longshots and stay off this list — they are still on the board for parlays.
- 1Kyren WilliamsRBLA vs ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ET65.2%FD -190No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
- 1Christian McCaffreyRBSF vs WAS · Mon 8:15 PM ET60.6%FD -250Scored · 2 TD · +0.40u
- 2James CookRBBUF vs LV · Sun 4:25 PM ET63.9%FD -165Scored · 1 TD · +0.61u
- 2Javonte WilliamsRBDAL vs GB · Sun 8:20 PM ET59.5%FD -230Scored · 1 TD · +0.43u
- 2George KittleTESF vs WAS · Mon 8:15 PM ET38.0%FD +105Scored · 1 TD · +1.05u
- 3Christian WatsonWRGB vs DAL · Sun 8:20 PM ET53.6%FD +120No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
- 3Mike EvansWRSF vs WAS · Mon 8:15 PM ET37.2%FD -105No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
- 3Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC vs LAC · Sun 4:25 PM ET63.0%FD -165Scored · 2 TD · +0.61u
- 4CeeDee LambWRDAL vs GB · Sun 8:20 PM ET42.8%FD +115No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
- 4Stefon DiggsWRWAS vs SF · Mon 8:15 PM ET27.2%FD +250Scored · 1 TD · +2.50u
- 5Kaelon BlackRBSF vs WAS · Mon 8:15 PM ET21.3%FD +380No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
- 5MarShawn LloydRBGB vs DAL · Sun 8:20 PM ET42.5%FD -140No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
- 6Rachaad WhiteRBWAS vs SF · Mon 8:15 PM ET18.5%FD +115Scored · 1 TD · +1.15u
- 7Puka NacuaWRLA vs ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ET55.5%FD -150No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
- 7Jayden DanielsQBWAS vs SF · Mon 8:15 PM ET18.1%FD +230No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
How these picks are made
The model starts from each player's carries, targets and red-zone touches over recent weeks, adjusts for the matchup and stadium, then checks its answer against the sportsbook price. A pick only appears here when the model's chance to score beats the chance the price implies.
See the record
Every pre-kickoff pick we have saved is graded and published — wins and losses both, with the price taken and profit in units.
