Week 7 Anytime TD Picks

Finished 16-27 with 1 void · 37.2% of picks scored · -4.31u at 1u each

Every player with an Anytime Touchdown price this week, ranked by our model's chance they score at least once. The ranking weighs backfield role and red-zone work, the opponent's touchdowns allowed to the position, and the points a team is expected to score from its spread and total. Players priced above +400 are longshots and stay off this list — they are still on the board for parlays.

  1. 1
    Jahmyr GibbsRB
    DET vs GB · Sun 4:25 PM ET
    68.2%
    FD -400
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
  2. 1
    Javonte WilliamsRB
    DAL vs PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    51.6%
    FD -150
    Scored · 1 TD · +0.67u
  3. 2
    Kenneth Walker IIIRB
    KC vs SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ET
    45.9%
    FD -130
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
  4. 2
    Dameon PierceRB
    PHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    41.6%
    FD +550
    Scored · 1 TD · +5.50u
  5. 2
    Kyren WilliamsRB
    LA vs LV · Sun 4:25 PM ET
    56.7%
    FD -145
    Scored · 1 TD · +0.69u
  6. 3
    CeeDee LambWR
    DAL vs PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    37.9%
    FD +130
    Scored · 2 TD · +1.30u
  7. 3
    Christian McCaffreyRB
    SF vs ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ET
    54.8%
    FD -240
    Scored · 1 TD · +0.42u
  8. 4
    Aaron JonesRB
    MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET
    54.5%
    FD +125
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
  9. 4
    Dallas GoedertTE
    PHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    25.4%
    FD +180
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
  10. 5
    Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR
    SEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ET
    36.5%
    FD +115
    Scored · 1 TD · +1.15u
  11. 5
    Christian WatsonWR
    GB vs DET · Sun 4:25 PM ET
    48.6%
    FD +130
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
  12. 6
    Emanuel WilsonRB
    SEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ET
    31.3%
    FD +115
    Scored · 1 TD · +1.15u
  13. 6
    George PickensWR
    DAL vs PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    23.2%
    FD +180
    Scored · 1 TD · +1.80u
  14. 7
    Saquon BarkleyRB
    PHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    22.5%
    FD +110
    Scored · 1 TD · +1.10u
  15. 7
    Jaylen WarrenRB
    PIT vs NO · Sun 9:30 AM ET
    48.3%
    FD +100
    No score · 0 TD · -1.00u

How these picks are made

The model starts from each player's carries, targets and red-zone touches over recent weeks, adjusts for the matchup and stadium, then checks its answer against the sportsbook price. A pick only appears here when the model's chance to score beats the chance the price implies.

See the record

Every pre-kickoff pick we have saved is graded and published — wins and losses both, with the price taken and profit in units.

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