Week 7 Anytime TD Picks
Finished 16-27 with 1 void · 37.2% of picks scored · -4.31u at 1u each
Every player with an Anytime Touchdown price this week, ranked by our model's chance they score at least once. The ranking weighs backfield role and red-zone work, the opponent's touchdowns allowed to the position, and the points a team is expected to score from its spread and total. Players priced above +400 are longshots and stay off this list — they are still on the board for parlays.
- 1Jahmyr GibbsRBDET vs GB · Sun 4:25 PM ET68.2%FD -400No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
- 1Javonte WilliamsRBDAL vs PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET51.6%FD -150Scored · 1 TD · +0.67u
- 2Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC vs SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ET45.9%FD -130No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
- 2Dameon PierceRBPHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM ET41.6%FD +550Scored · 1 TD · +5.50u
- 2Kyren WilliamsRBLA vs LV · Sun 4:25 PM ET56.7%FD -145Scored · 1 TD · +0.69u
- 3CeeDee LambWRDAL vs PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET37.9%FD +130Scored · 2 TD · +1.30u
- 3Christian McCaffreyRBSF vs ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ET54.8%FD -240Scored · 1 TD · +0.42u
- 4Aaron JonesRBMIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET54.5%FD +125No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
- 4Dallas GoedertTEPHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM ET25.4%FD +180No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
- 5Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ET36.5%FD +115Scored · 1 TD · +1.15u
- 5Christian WatsonWRGB vs DET · Sun 4:25 PM ET48.6%FD +130No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
- 6Emanuel WilsonRBSEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ET31.3%FD +115Scored · 1 TD · +1.15u
- 6George PickensWRDAL vs PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET23.2%FD +180Scored · 1 TD · +1.80u
- 7Saquon BarkleyRBPHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM ET22.5%FD +110Scored · 1 TD · +1.10u
- 7Jaylen WarrenRBPIT vs NO · Sun 9:30 AM ET48.3%FD +100No score · 0 TD · -1.00u
How these picks are made
The model starts from each player's carries, targets and red-zone touches over recent weeks, adjusts for the matchup and stadium, then checks its answer against the sportsbook price. A pick only appears here when the model's chance to score beats the chance the price implies.
See the record
Every pre-kickoff pick we have saved is graded and published — wins and losses both, with the price taken and profit in units.
