Week 8 Anytime TD Picks

14 games · 88 players priced · best posted price, updated Oct 28, 10:00 AM ET

Every player with an Anytime Touchdown price this week, ranked by our model's chance they score at least once. The ranking weighs backfield role and red-zone work, the opponent's touchdowns allowed to the position, and the points a team is expected to score from its spread and total. Players priced above +400 are longshots and stay off this list — they are still on the board for parlays.

  1. 1
    Javonte WilliamsRB
    DAL vs ARI · Sun 1:00 PM ET
    69.7%
    DK -280
  2. 2
    Derrick HenryRB
    BAL vs BUF · Sun 1:00 PM ET
    67.0%
    FD -230
  3. 3
    Jahmyr GibbsRB
    DET vs MIN · Sun 1:00 PM ET
    62.8%
    FD -290
  4. 4
    James CookRB
    BUF vs BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ET
    58.3%
    FD -160
  5. 5
    Kyren WilliamsRB
    LA vs LAC · Sun 4:05 PM ET
    55.7%
    DK -160
  6. 6
    Bucky IrvingRB
    TB vs ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ET
    54.7%
    DK -130
  7. 7
    Kenneth Walker IIIRB
    KC vs DEN · Sun 4:25 PM ET
    52.8%
    FD -145
  8. 8
    CeeDee LambWR
    DAL vs ARI · Sun 1:00 PM ET
    52.4%
    DK +100
  9. 9
    Bijan RobinsonRB
    ATL vs TB · Sun 1:00 PM ET
    51.2%
    DK -180
  10. 10
    Aaron JonesRB
    MIN vs DET · Sun 1:00 PM ET
    50.2%
    FD +105
  11. 11
    Chuba HubbardRB
    CAR vs GB · Thu 8:15 PM ET
    50.0%
    FD -115
  12. 12
    Puka NacuaWR
    LA vs LAC · Sun 4:05 PM ET
    49.8%
    DK -150
  13. 13
    Rhamondre StevensonRB
    NE vs MIA · Sun 4:25 PM ET
    49.2%
    FD -130
  14. 14
    Bhayshul TutenRB
    JAX vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET
    49.1%
    DK -105
  15. 15
    Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR
    SEA vs CHI · Mon 8:15 PM ET
    48.6%
    FD -110

How these picks are made

The model starts from each player's carries, targets and red-zone touches over recent weeks, adjusts for the matchup and stadium, then checks its answer against the sportsbook price. A pick only appears here when the model's chance to score beats the chance the price implies.

See the record

Every pre-kickoff pick we have saved is graded and published — wins and losses both, with the price taken and profit in units.

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